64 Squares versus 64 Teams

[fourthirty]

It's March Madness time here in the USA (no, I'm not referring to the breeding season of the European hare). For those not familiar with this phenomenon, it is the time when the Top 68 University Basketball teams face off for a Single Elimination tournament!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Men%2 ... ampionship

While 68 teams play, most "brackets" that are filled out only take into account 64 teams (four divisions of 16 teams each, ignoring the first round of play-in games by the lower seed schools).

The Billionaire Warren Buffet offered $1 Billion Dollars to anyone that could fill out a perfect bracket this year. Example of a bracket is shown here:

http://i.turner.ncaa.com/dr/ncaa/ncaa7/ ... report.pdf

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketb ... ewable_men

Well, after only ONE ROUND (64 teams played 32 games), there are no longer any perfect brackets remaining in this challenge! Though the contest captured the imagination of many seeking fabulous riches, not one single billion-dollar entry was able to escape this round without picking at least one game incorrectly (specific details of the upset games are listed at the bottom of this post).

Well, Mr. Buffet didn't accumulate his Billions without a fundamental understand of mathematics and statistics, and this has generated much discussion on the odds of picking a perfect bracket.

The odds for the perfect bracket statistically are 1 in 2^63 = 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808, or 9.2 quintillion (64 teams play 63 games). This number is based only on the official 64-game bracket, and excludes the additional four teams that have to play their way into the bracket.

However, the figures are based off 50/50 odds for each game (the flip of a coin). However, for someone who understand odds and follows Basketball, you can usually bet that a higher seeded team will beat a lower seeded team (never in tournament history has a #16 seed upset a #1 seed). Therefore, if making educated guesses, the odds are much higher. Mathematics Professor Bergen of DePaul University believes you can improve your odds to 1 in 128 billion:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6Smkv11Mj4

As those odds of picking 64 teams may seem overwhelming (2^63), it pales in comparison when you look at the 64 squares of a chess board. Victor Allis estimates the number of possible chess positions to be close to 10^50, and the game-tree complexity of chess to equal 10^123.

http://fragrieu.free.fr/SearchingForSolutions.pdf

So, 64 Teams versus 64 Squares. How much would Warren Buffet pay to witness the perfect game of chess?


(More notes on the Round of 64: Memphis' 71-66 win over George Washington eliminated the final three brackets that were eligible to win $1 billion. So, 25 games into the Round of 64 – or 37.3 percent through the tournament – every single billion-dollar bracket was busted.

The assault on perfection, however, started long before Friday night. Upsets by Dayton, Harvard and North Dakota State thinned the herd on Thursday before Mercer's shocker over Duke culled the pack even more. By Friday, after Stanford beat New Mexico, only 16 perfect brackets remained. The pick distribution showed 97.6 percent thought Duke's Blue Devils would shut down the Mercer Bears. But even after a single game on the NCAA March Madness tournament's first day, almost 84 percent of participants were already knocked out when Dayton upset Ohio State.)

[Cyberchess]

So, 64 Teams versus 64 Squares. How much would Warren Buffet pay to witness the perfect game of chess?

Here in the states, we lost the oldest and most prestigious chess club in the entire country due to lack of funding. Aside from one NY chess tournament financed by Yoko Ono some years ago, I don’t recall many well-heeled celebrities contributing to chess for the most part. We sure could use someone like Warren Buffet to help finance the royal game.

Pulling lint from pockets regards,
John

[fourthirty]

So, 64 Teams versus 64 Squares. How much would Warren Buffet pay to witness the perfect game of chess?

Here in the states, we lost the oldest and most prestigious chess club in the entire country due to lack of funding. Aside from one NY chess tournament financed by Yoko Ono some years ago, I don’t recall many well-heeled celebrities contributing to chess for the most part. We sure could use someone like Warren Buffet to help finance the royal game.

Pulling lint from pockets regards,
John

John - to my knowledge The Mechanics' Institute Chess Club here in San Francisco is the oldest chess club in the United States.

I do agree with your statement about celebrity financing!

[Cyberchess]

So, 64 Teams versus 64 Squares. How much would Warren Buffet pay to witness the perfect game of chess?

Here in the states, we lost the oldest and most prestigious chess club in the entire country due to lack of funding. Aside from one NY chess tournament financed by Yoko Ono some years ago, I don’t recall many well-heeled celebrities contributing to chess for the most part. We sure could use someone like Warren Buffet to help finance the royal game.

Pulling lint from pockets regards,
John

John - to my knowledge The Mechanics' Institute Chess Club here in San Francisco is the oldest chess club in the United States.

I do agree with your statement about celebrity financing!

I stand corrected, Greg. That should have read that it was the oldest chess club in America in continuous existence.

You are fortunate to still have The Mechanic’s Institute Chess Club. New York City still has The Marshall Chess Club located in the late Frank J. Marshall’s divan on 10th street. This is a great place to play chess, features a backyard for summertime fun, but unfortunately is not centrally located, as was the former Manhattan Chess Club.

Club musing regards,
John

[fourthirty]

You are fortunate to still have The Mechanic’s Institute Chess Club. New York City still has The Marshall Chess Club located in the late Frank J. Marshall’s divan on 10th street. This is a great place to play chess, features a backyard for summertime fun, but unfortunately is not centrally located, as was the former Manhattan Chess Club.

Club musing regards,
John

Yes, very fortunate.

Sad day when the Manhattan Club closed. I recently finished reading Endgame by Frank Brady. I really enjoyed reading about Bobby's experiences at the Brooklyn, Manhattan, and Marshall chess clubs. Amazing that he joined the Manhattan Club at 12 years old!

I've never had the opportunity to visit the Marshall Chess club (even though I've been to the Village several times). I'm never with a group that has an interest in it. I really do need to make a point to visit during my next trip. So much history there!

Also a Good Excuse to Grab a Pint at the GMT Tavern Regards,
Greg

[Cyberchess]

I look forward to reading “Endgame” as I own a hardcover copy of the most excellent “Profile of a Prodigy” by Frank Brady.

During his youth, Bobby Fischer also gave chess lessons in Washington Square Park – situated beside NYU University and just a short walk from The Marshall Chess Club.
If you plan on visiting NYC, The Marshall Chess Club would be well worth stopping by, though unfortunately the chess area at Washington Square Park has since been infested with street drug dealers and a seedy crowd. A better choice for outdoor play would be The Chess Pavillion in Central Park:

http://www.centralparknyc.org/things-to ... house.html

http://www.chess.com/blog/batgirl/check ... he-weather

Every September, Central Park hosts the “Chess In The Park Rapid Open" event:

http://www.nycgovparks.org/parks/centra ... rapid-open

When visiting the west coast, I will be sure to visit The Mechanic’s Institute Chess Club.

Regards from the Dept. of Chess Tourism…

John

[fourthirty]

Sorry to hear about Washington Square Park. Another location with so much history! Unfortunately, we've had some similar problems here. The SFPD had to shut down the long time tradition of outdoor chess on Market Street due to drug sales.

http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/E ... 823376.php

Every September, Central Park hosts the “Chess In The Park Rapid Open" event:

http://www.nycgovparks.org/parks/centra ... rapid-open

The Chess Pavillion looks very cool, and the September "Chess in the Park" seems like it would be a blast to participate in!

Hmmm... "Autumn in New York" Regards...

[Cyberchess]

San Francisco’s Market Street seems a bit like Broadway @ Times Square in the ‘70s and ‘80s. There was this entrepreneurial gentleman that would train and turn out chess hustlers from economically depressed regions to work for him. He provided the tables, equipment, and even had his own territory staked out amid the adult theatres and related businesses of the day. All games were of course for wager, and he would get a fee for each game played regardless of the outcome.

The local police were well aware of the gambling taking place, though no one seemed to mind the presence of the well-paid businessmen that stopped by for a quick game on their lunch hours, or the endless flow of tourists out for entertainment and dining in the many restaurants throughout the area. The Three Card Monte players, on the other hand, had to work quickly, usually plying their trade on a cardboard box-top, as the police would arrest them on site if caught.

It’s really too bad that a few bad apples ruined the sidewalk chess scene for everybody else.

Off to the playground regards,
John

[fourthirty]

There was this entrepreneurial gentleman that would train and turn out chess hustlers from economically depressed regions to work for him. He provided the tables, equipment, and even had his own territory staked out amid the adult theatres and related businesses of the day. All games were of course for wager, and he would get a fee for each game played regardless of the outcome.

Wow, sounds like he had quite the operation going on there! Too bad the television show "Shark Tank" wasn't around at that time. I can see Mark Cuban investing in that business!

"On Broadway" regards...

[fourthirty]

Well, a year later, tonight is final game of the USA's university basketball "March Madness".

Last year, the Billionaire Warren Buffet offered $1 Billion Dollars to anyone that could fill out a perfect bracket this year. Of course, nobody won - after only ONE ROUND (64 teams played 32 games), there were no perfect brackets remaining in this challenge.

While the odds of winning last year were 1 in 128 billion, the odds of winning the challenge this year are 1 in ZERO (because the companies behind the contest are too busy suing each other to organize another one this year).

Interesting, yet sad article...

http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/12/news/bu ... acket-bet/

Go Badgers!